could potentially reach 13,700 by 2036. Depending on the extent of future development, the 2036
population could range from 22,000 to 32,000. It is important to recognize that global phenomena,
such as climate change and economic fluctuations, increase the uncertainty associated with
projections of future growth in the South Cowichan area;
A variety of plans, regulations, and guidelines currently affects water and land use in the South
Cowichan area. Ten provincial acts and four federal acts are relevant to water and watershed
management in the Study Area, and community land use plans have been developed for all of its
electoral areas. CVRD authority in water management is presently unclear since local governments’
abilities to implement and enforce water use policies within their jurisdictions are limited by the present
water governance structure in British Columbia;
Uncontrolled water use for farming, cattle rearing, wineries, and new land development projects in the
South Cowichan area will place increasing pressure on its existing water resources. The present
estimated water demand for all land uses use within the South Cowichan area is estimated at
26
million m
3
/
yr. By 2036, these demands may grow to 34 million m
3
/
yr. With active water
conservation measures and urban densification, total water demand in 2036 could remain the same
as today’s estimated consumption, as would the distribution of demand among future agricultural,
residential, and other urban uses. Without conservation, the residential component could grow from 7
to 10 million m
3
/
yr, which highlights the importance of future land use decisions as part of a sound
water management strategy;
Agricultural activities account for a substantial proportion of current water use in the South Cowichan
area (15 million m
3
for agricultural use, compared to 7 million m
3
for residential and 3 million m
3
for
“
other” urban uses). Detailed information is not presently available concerning the amounts of water
used by different agricultural activities. Based on the disproportionate use of water by agricultural
activities within the Study Area, prudent water management planning should carefully consider the
value of conservation measures to ensure that an adequate supply of water is available for the
region’s other users, and should identify potential obstacles to attaining water use efficiencies;
The South Cowichan area’s five First Nations reserves and major non-governmental water users
(
primarily educational institutions) constitute a relatively small component of its overall water use,
although their demand volumes in the Shawnigan and Cowichan watersheds exceed commercial and
industrial consumption. Water use on First Nations reserves is currently fairly limited, but may grow
significantly as their respective residential community plans and commercial developments are
implemented;
The relative proportion of current groundwater to surface water use within the Study Area is not
currently known with precision, since regional groundwater extraction rates are not monitored with the
same accuracy as surface water diversion rates;
The hydrology and patterns of water use in the South Cowichan area could change substantially by
the conversion of existing forest land to urban uses. More information on the likelihood of these
conversions will be needed as the water planning process proceeds. Specific estimates water supply
demand to service new forest-urban land conversion developments should be undertaken, as well as
projections regarding the extent of potential modifications to the surface water and groundwater
